What are the odds
What are the odds?By Bert van Manen
Antalya 2013 was a smörgasbord of fine 3-cushion play. As I write this, only one round has been played in the knock-out phase of the tournament, so it may have gotten even better. Look at a few of the highlights from Monday to Friday , and tell me you are not impressed:
30 in 12 by Hofman, Lindemann and Durk Hee Hwang
30 in 11 by Birol Uymaz
30 in 9 by JP de Bruijn
40 – 36 in 17 between Forthomme and Teran
40 – 38 in 17 between Sanchez and Christiani
40 in 14 by Durk Hee Hwang and Jaspers
40 in 12 by Zanetti
40 in 12 by Blomdahl
That is outrageous scoring by a dozen different players, on difficult (Platin) tables I might add. So which of the above matches was the one most talked about in Antalya, and in the Kozoom chatrooms? None of the above. It was Caudron’s totally unexpected first round loss to Ahmed Alp: 40 – 32 in 34, a modest 1.176 for the Turkish champ, an unheard-of 0.941 for the World nr. 1. How bad did FC play? Honestly? Maybe 25 % below his usual standards. Yes, he had half his normal average. But most of what happened was the result of "run of the ball”. Horrible starting positions, balls tight under cushions, no positional reward for good points made. He did not miss all that much that he should have made. People are quick to judge though: they look at the scoreboard and: Yes your honor, we have a verdict.
From time to time, the Alp’s will defeat the Caudron’s. It’s inevitable. Caudron may be an overwhelming favorite in most of the matches he plays, but he plays 200 a year. And, depending on the opposition, he’s an 80 - 90 % favorite, not a 99 % one. Here’s a summary of his chances, assuming he’s good for 2.000 average, against a 1.380 opponent:
To 30 pts: 79 / 21 %. To 40 pts: 82 / 18 %. To 50 pts: 85 / 15 %. To 100 pts: 93 / 7 %.
A bit further down in the pecking order: this is what a 1.000 player can expect against a 0.800 player:
To 30 pts: 71 / 29 %. To 40 pts: 75 / 25 %. To 50 pts: 77 / 23 %. To 100 pts: 85 / 15 %.
Last one, before I bore you to death. This is 0.700 versus 0.500:
To 30 pts: 82 / 18 %. To 40 pts: 85 / 15 %. To 50 pts: 88 / 12 %. To 100 pts: 95 / 5 %.
In case you are wondering: a best of three sets match (sets of 15) sits between the 30 and 40 pt probabilities, a best of five is almost identical to the 50 pt results. (acc. to "billiard calculator” – courtesy of my friend David Levine)
Is there something wrong with the format, if FC can go out in the 1st round? Absolutely not. Some argued that it was a disadvantage for him to be seeded and come in on Friday, that he would have done better with one or two matches under his belt. Sorry, I don’t buy that. Zanetti, Blomdahl and Jaspers had the same "disadvantage” and played 3 average. Nothing is "wrong” with the format, something is very "right” in the world of 3-cushion: two dozen players that are not even in the world’s top 10 can, on their best day, beat anybody. Raymond Ceulemans won 23 world titles in a quarter of a century: that was awesome. But, looking back on those John Wayne days when movies were in black & white (and so was everything else), I honestly prefer today’s fast-paced and many-faced chaos.
It is now Saturday. Add a 40 in 13 by Adnan Yüksel. Add a 40 in 13 by Dick Jaspers. And add the third-best match in history to 40 points: 40 in 7 by Eddy Merckx. Antalya 2013 is already a historic tournament, with three matches still to play.